The launch of the hottest iphone11 means that the

2022-09-22
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Does the release of iphone11 mean the end of the electronics industry

with the release of iphone11, there are many claims that the rise in the electronics industry is coming to an end. Indeed, iphone11 has little innovation, and the only bright spot is that the price is much cheaper, which makes everyone doubt the logic that the replacement trend will bring about improvement. Today, let's discuss whether the overall market of the electronics industry has ended? I want to explain my judgment from top to bottom, from macro to micro: the market growth rate of the whole company has reached the level of 7% to 8%, and the market of the electronic industry has not reached the peak

first of all, when it comes to the electronics industry, we have to say that a very important index is the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which is an index compiled by the 30 largest semiconductor companies in the United States by market capitalization, and can almost represent the 30 strongest companies in the global semiconductor industry segment. Our electronic index is highly correlated with this index. The following figure:

this is the monthly trend of the superposition of the two indexes since 2000. The black line is our electronic index, and the red line is the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. Their common characteristics are: first, the trend is consistent, second, the volatility is large, and third, they are greatly different from the main board index of their respective markets. In contrast, our volatility is greater than that of the Fei ban index, but this does not affect the judgment of the trend

take out the half fee index and list it separately to see what it has experienced in the past years? What will you experience in the future

some institutions divide this index into three major eras, which I personally agree with

the first era is the era of personal computers. It has experienced the foam of Internet (the first stage) and its burst (the second stage), the glory of Windows XP (the third stage), and the saturation of the personal computer era (the fourth stage)

the second era is the era of mobile Internet. In this era, such companies were born, pushing intelligence to the peak of volume (the fifth stage), and the continuous innovation of the industry has led to the simultaneous rise of volume and price in the industry. Of course, there is the birth of bitcoin (the sixth stage). These two stages are the golden stage of China's electronic industry. There have been a large number of well-known consumer electronics enterprises, and the overall industrial chain has gradually shifted to China. This trend has not yet ended. After a round of decline, the author believes that it is caused by the saturation of personal consumption in China and the lack of industrial innovation (the seventh stage)

the third era is called the era of interconnection of all things, which also began from the 5g period (the eighth stage). Corresponding to the performance of the electronics industry in our A-share market this year, 5g is also the main line. Whether it is the PCB industry (printed circuit board) launched by the base station, or the cycle reversal of consumer electronics caused by the 5g switch tide. Are the important reasons for the current round of rise

when will this round of 5g era rise end? Let's look at a picture

this is the global network flow chart. The horizontal axis coordinates represent the year, and the red line represents the global network flow, which has increased by 1million times from 1995 to 2018. And this blue line is the market value of global Internet companies. For more than 30 years, they have highly overlapped, and the support behind the Internet traffic is the revolution brought by communication technology. In the 3G era, there is no way to use mobile payment, and the 4G era has solved this problem. Since the digital impact tester adopted high-precision encoder technology in 2010, we can see that Alibaba has enough time for experimenters to read out accurate load values. Tencent depth has benefited from this trend and achieved a substantial increase. What about the 5g era? We can see what changes have taken place in South Korea, which is relatively ahead in the 5g field. South Korea probably began to commercialize 5g on a large scale in June this year. Although there are no new applications, the traffic has changed significantly

this figure is the end-user traffic statistics of SKT, one of the three largest businesses in South Korea. In the case of only some relatively basic applications such as HD video, the data flow of 5g users has been 2.5 times that of 4G era. It is conceivable how this data will change assuming the popularity of driverless, ar/vr, smart home and other applications

therefore, from a macro perspective, 5g is only in the stage of a pre cycle, and its contribution to the electronics industry has just begun. At this time, it is illogical to say that the electronic industry will grow to the end

from a microscopic point of view, why is the electronic index still in an upward stage at this stage, and there is little risk of taking the lead. Experienced buyer organization strategies all know that some companies or industries with strong cyclicality are in the most dangerous time when their profitability is the strongest and the market is generally optimistic. Therefore, the highest point of the stock price often appears at the second highest point of the profit. When the profit reaches the highest point, the stock price has begun to fall. At that time, people who do not know where to go think that the profit is still growing, so it is easy to copy the bottom and copy it halfway up. The latest example is the performance of the consumer electronics industry in the fourth quarter of 2017. But now it is obviously far from that extreme situation. Let's take a look at the current valuation of the electronics industry

the current P/E ratio is only about 38 times, which is still a long way from the peak of 70 times in 2017. Let's look at the cycle. Let's take the more representative ones in the electronics industry as an example

this figure is a demonstration of the cycle of the industry, and the red line roughly represents its production cycle. About three years is a cycle, so its rising cycle should be at least more than one year, and it has only maintained for more than half a year at present. There is no logic to see the head at any time

therefore, from top to bottom, the overall market of the electronic industry should not be at the moment when everyone sincerely regards each other's development as an important opportunity for their own development

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